Wednesday’s bond market has opened up slightly following favorable economic news. Stocks are showing noticeable gains, pushing the Dow higher by 115 points and the Nasdaq up 57 points. The bond market is currently up 2/32 (4.15%), which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.
November’s ADP Employment report showed only 103,000 private-sector jobs were added last month, falling short of the 127,000 that was predicted. A downward revision to October’s number is skewing the results a little (from 113K to 106K), but we still can label the report favorable for bonds and mortgage rates since it is a sign of slowing labor activity. It is worth noting though, this report is not accurate as an indicator of what Friday’s detailed and more influential governmental Employment report is going to reveal.
We also received good news in this morning’s second release. Revised 3rd Quarter Productivity numbers were announced at 8:30 AM ET. They pointed to stronger productivity or worker output than previously estimated. The headline number was revised from up 4.7% to 5.2%. Furthermore, a secondary reading that tracks labor costs was revised lower by 0.4%. Unfortunately, this version of the report is a bit aged and doesn’t carry a high level of importance in the markets, preventing a stronger impact on this morning’s mortgage rates.
Tomorrow’s only relevant data will be last week’s unemployment update at 8:30 AM ET. It is expected to show 223,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were made during the week. This would be an increase from the previous week’s 218,000 initial filings. Rising claims are a sign of weakness in the employment sector. Therefore, the higher the number, the better the news for mortgage rates.
If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
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