Todays Commentary

Updated on June 28, 2022 10:23:28 AM EDT
Tuesday’s bond market has opened slightly in negative territory despite favorable economic news. Stocks are mixed with the Dow up 183 points and the Nasdaq down 4 points. The bond market is currently down 3/32 (3.21%), which with yesterday’s late weakness should cause an increase of approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point in this morning’s mortgage rates.

Yesterday’s 5-year Treasury Note auction drew a weak interest from investors, helping to contribute to afternoon losses in bonds. It wasn’t enough of a move to fuel widespread upward rate revisions but did carry into this morning’s pricing. The lackluster demand in yesterday’s sale prevents us from being too optimistic about today’s 7-year Note sale. Results of it will be posted at 1:00 PM ET. If they show another weak sale, we may see a slight increase to mortgage pricing this afternoon.

The Conference Board posted their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for June at 10:00 AM ET this morning. They announced a reading of 98.7 that fell short of expectations and was a noticeable decline from May’s revised 103.2. The lower reading indicates surveyed consumers felt worse about their own financial situations this month than they did last month. Since waning confidence usually translates into softer consumer spending numbers that fuel economic growth, we can consider this report favorable for bonds and mortgage rates.

We have two events that we will be watching tomorrow for a possible impact on mortgage rates. The day will start with the second revision to the 1st Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading at 8:30 AM ET. The GDP is the sum of all products and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the best measurement of economic growth or contraction. However, this particular data is quite aged now (covers January through March) and will likely have little influence on the bond market or mortgage pricing unless it varies greatly from previous readings. Market participants are looking more towards next month's release of the current quarter's initial GDP reading. Last month's first revision showed the economy contracted at a 1.5% annual rate. Tomorrow's update is expected to show the same. A large upward revision in the GDP would be considered negative for rates as it means the economy was stronger than thought.

Also tomorrow morning is a speaking engagement by Fed Chairman Powell. He will be speaking at a European Central Bank forum in Portugal. The event is titled Economic Policy Discussion, meaning we could get a reaction in the markets. This discussion will likely be focused on the global economy, giving traders insight into other central banker’s thoughts about the future. He is expected to speak at 9:00 AM ET, making this a morning event for rates.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

 ©Mortgage Commentary 2022
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