Today's Commentary

Updated on October 22, 2025 10:06:21 AM EDT
Wednesday’s bond market has opened flat as investors wait for upcoming events for direction. Stocks are showing early losses of 111 points in the Dow and 5 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently unchanged from yesterday’s close (3.97%), which should keep this morning’s mortgage rates close to Tuesday’s early pricing.

There is no relevant economic data being released today, but we do have an afternoon event that may influence rates later today. 20-year Treasury Bonds are being auctioned today with results of the sale set to be posted at 1:00 PM ET. If the results show demand for the securities was strong, we could see afternoon strength in bonds that leads to an intraday improvement in rates before the end of the day. On the other hand, a lackluster demand could cause a minor increase in rates.

Tomorrow brings us a piece of relevant economic data. We will get September's Existing Home Sales report at 10:00 AM ET. This National Association of Realtors release will give us an indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand by tracking home resales. Forecasts show an increase in sales as mortgage rates dropped last month, pointing to housing sector strength. A decline would be good news for the bond market since a slowing housing sector makes broader economic growth less likely and causes bonds to be more appealing to investors.

While tomorrow’s report will draw some attention in the markets, due partly to a lack of governmental data over the past few weeks, it is Friday’s release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) that traders are anxiously waiting for. It measures inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy and is considered to be one of the most important monthly reports for the bond market. It does come from a governmental agency, but some furloughed workers have been called back to complete this report because it is needed to determine the Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) for social security recipients. Furthermore, the Fed will be able to use the data at their upcoming FOMC meeting later this month. Any surprises in the release should cause a strong reaction in the financial and mortgage markets.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

 ©Mortgage Commentary 2025
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