Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory due to inflation concerns and oil crossing well above the $100 per barrel threshold this weekend. Stocks are reacting to the same events, pushing the Dow lower by 771 points and the Nasdaq down 234 points. The bond market is currently down 7/32 (4.15%), which should cause an increase of approximately .125 of a discount point in this morning’s mortgage rates if compared to Friday’s early pricing. Many lenders issued intraday improvements to rates Friday afternoon, so if you saw a downward revision Friday, you will likely see a larger increase this morning.

Today is the only day of the week without relevant economic data to influence bond trading. The remainder of the week has seven monthly and quarterly economic releases that we will be watching, in addition to a couple of auctions of long-term Treasury securities that may cause an afternoon revision in mortgage pricing midweek. We also will be looking for Iran and oil-related news to also influence the markets.

Economic data starts tomorrow with the release of the moderately important Existing Home Sales report at 10:00 AM ET. The National Association of Realtors is expected to announce a small decline in home resales last month. Bad news for rates would be a sizable increase in sales, meaning the housing sector is gaining momentum. Housing strength makes broader economic growth more likely and bonds less appealing to investors.

Overall, there are several days that could end up being the most active for mortgage rates. Extremely important inflation data makes Wednesday and Friday good candidates, but today’s move in pricing could also make the list. No day appears as an easy pick for calmest either. With so much scheduled this week and geopolitical events in full force, it is highly likely that we will see plenty of movement in the markets and mortgage rates. Unfortunately, the possibility of rates moving higher is much stronger than them moving lower. Accordingly, please proceed extremely cautiously if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.