• Monday’s mortgage rates should be lower than Friday’s early pricing by approximately .125 of a discount point. The bond market is currently up 8/32 (4.65%).

 • Stocks are rallying on geopolitical news, pushing the Dow up 441 points and the Nasdaq higher 96 points.

 • This week’s busy economic calendar started with the release of June’s Durable Goods Orders at 8:30 AM ET this morning. It revealed new orders for big-ticket products such as airplanes, appliances and electronics rose 0.3% last month. This was a noticeable rebound from May’s revised 4.0% decline, but fell short of the 1.6% increase that was expected.

 • Today’s economic data isn’t what’s driving bond trading this morning. We are seeing the markets in general react to weekend news that there was a pause in military action between Iran and the U.S. after talks between them supposedly are making progress.

 • We have seen this scenario with Iran many times already only to have talks eventually fail. However, the pause in action has oil prices noticeably lower, meaning gas prices and inflation concerns should ease. Since bonds are more attractive to investors when inflation is softening, bond yields and mortgage rates are lower this morning.

 • The rest of the week has plenty more scheduled that is likely to affect mortgage rates. There are five more economic reports that are posted monthly or quarterly, including two that are considered to be highly important.

 • In addition to the data, there are also two shorter-term Treasury auctions and an FOMC meeting happening this week.

 • We are also watching for the large number of corporate earnings announcements to possibly influence stocks enough to cause funds to move into or out of bonds, impacting mortgage rates slightly.

 • The referenced Treasury auctions are taking place today and tomorrow when 5-year and 7-year Notes are being sold respectively. An overly strong or weak sale this week could affect bond trading after the results are posted at 1:00 PM ET each day. Favorable news for mortgage rates would be a strong interest in the securities, particularly from international investors.

 • Next up will be the release of the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for July at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow morning. If consumers are more confident in their own financial and employment situations, they are more apt to make large purchases in the near future. This is important because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of our economy. Current forecasts show a 92.1 reading, which would be an increase from June's 91.2. The lower the reading, the better the news for mortgage rates.

 • Overall, Wednesday is the most important day for rates due to the FOMC meeting, but Thursday's two major reports (PCE inflation indexes and initial GDP reading) could bring a big move in rates that day also.

 • Friday is the best candidate for calmest day.

 • There is no doubt that we will see plenty of movement in the financial markets and mortgage rates this week. Therefore, please keep an eye on them if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

 • Visit our Daily Commentary page on our site for detailed explanations on current news that is relevant to mortgage rates.

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If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.