• Thursday’s mortgage rates should be close to Wednesday’s early pricing because of bond losses late yesterday. The bond market is currently up 7/32 (4.11%). If you saw an intraday increase in rates yesterday afternoon, you should see an improvement this morning of about the same size.

 • Stocks are reacting mostly to earnings news late yesterday and partly to this morning’s Employment report. The Dow is up 586 points and the Nasdaq has gained 509 points.

 • Yesterday’s 20-year Treasury Bond auction was met with mixed interest. Some benchmarks in the results indicated a lackluster demand for the securities while others pointed to a better sale than last week’s two auctions. This was the last relevant auction of the month. In short, all three of this month’s long-term Treasury auctions raise a bit of concern about investor appetite for longer-term securities. This could be an issue for mortgage rates because they are based on similar termed securities.

 • The minutes from last month's FOMC meeting that were posted at 2:00 PM ET yesterday raised some doubt about the Fed making a third rate cut of the year next month. They showed there was plenty of debate whether supporting a softening employment sector or preventing inflation from rising further should be more of a priority.

 • Many members of the group felt no more rate cuts were needed this year unless something changed within the economy before their upcoming meeting. This was taken as bad news in the bond market because the lack of another rate reduction signals the Fed is more concerned about inflation than the employment sector softening. Accordingly, we saw a negative reaction in the bond market after the minutes were released late yesterday.

 • This morning’s major economic release was September’s Employment report that was previously delayed by the government shutdown. It gave us mixed readings about the employment sector, revealing a surprise 119,000 new jobs were added to the economy when only 50,000 were expected.

 • The good news for rates came in both of the other headline numbers. Today’s report showed the unemployment rate rose 0.1% to 4.4% in September, its highest rate since October of 2021. Furthermore, average earnings rose only 0.2% compared to the 0.3% that was expected to ease some wage inflation concerns.

 • We have to keep in mind that the data is aged now and most likely did nothing to alter what the Fed will do at next month’s FOMC meeting. You can find positive or negative results in this report, depending on what you hope to see.

 • Also posted early this morning was last week’s unemployment update. It showed 220,000 new claims for jobless benefits were filed last week. This is a little lighter than the 227,000 that was expected, but in line with updates before the shutdown.

 • The third release of the day was October’s Existing Home Sales report from the National Association of Realtors. They announced a 1.2% rise in home resales to beat forecasts slightly. October’s increase is a sign that the housing sector is starting to improve, likely driven by lower mortgage rates.

 • This week’s economic calendar comes to a close late tomorrow morning with the release of November’s revised University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 AM ET. Analysts are expecting to see a small increase from the 50.3 preliminary reading two weeks ago, meaning surveyed consumers felt better about their own financial and employment situations than previously thought and are more likely to spend. The lower the reading, the better the news for rates.

 • Visit our Daily Commentary page on our site for detailed explanations on current news that is relevant to mortgage rates.

 

 

 

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If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.