
• Wednesday’s mortgage rates should be approximately .125 of a discount lower than Tuesday’s early pricing. If you saw an intraday improvement late Tuesday, you may see a modest increase this morning, depending on the size of the intraday revision. The bond market is currently down 3/32 (4.15%).
• Stocks are mixed with the Dow up 166 points and the Nasdaq down 70 points.
• There is no relevant economic data set for release this morning.
• If we see an intraday move in rates during early morning or midday trading, it likely will be due to something said during one of today’s Fed-member speaking engagements. There are a few scheduled throughout the day, but none are expected to yield a major surprise that would cause a noticeable reaction in the markets.
• We do have an afternoon event that may affect mortgage rates. Results of today’s 20-year Treasury Bond auction will be announced at 1:00 PM ET. If they show a strong demand from investors, we could see bond gains and possibly a slight improvement to mortgage rates before the end of the day.
• Tomorrow brings us two economic reports, both at 8:30 AM ET. One is much more important than the other since it tracks inflation at the consumer level of the economy.
• November’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to show a 0.3% increase in both the monthly overall and core readings. The core data is considered more important because it excludes more volatile food and energy costs, leaving a more reliable dataset.
• November’s year-over-year CPI readings are predicted to be at 3.1% and 3.0% respectively. Good news for bonds and mortgage rates will be weaker numbers that show inflation is softer than many had thought.
• Also early tomorrow will be the release of last week’s unemployment figures. They are expected to show 225,000 new claims for jobless benefits were filed, down from the previous week’s 236,000 initial filings that surprised many in the markets when it was announced last week. Good news for rates would be an increase in new claims instead of a decline.
• Visit our Daily Commentary page on our site for detailed explanations on current news that is relevant to mortgage rates.
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