
• Friday’s mortgage rates should be higher by approximately .125 of a discount point. The bond market is currently down 2/32 (4.77%), which is actually respectable considering the surprisingly strong data this morning.
• Stocks are looking to close the week on a negative note, pushing the Dow lower by 264 points and the Nasdaq down 16 points.
• Today’s big news was the release of August’s governmental Employment report at 8:30 AM ET that showed 162,000 jobs were added to the economy last month. This was significantly higher than the 56,000 that was expected.
• July’s payroll number was revised from a loss of 23,000 to positive 21,000 and 11,000 more were added to June’s payrolls, meaning those two months were stronger than previously thought also.
• August’s unemployment rate held at July’s 4.1%, as expected.
• Average earnings rose 0.3% last month, to match forecasts. However, the year-over-year rate moved from 3.0% to 3.1%. Rising wages allow consumers to have more money to spend and also causes their employers to raise the cost of their products and/or services, contributing to inflationary pressures in the economy.
• This morning’s report is clearly bad news for bonds and mortgage rates, partly because it gives the Fed a bit more room to raise key short-term interest rates sooner than later to help bring inflation down. If the employment sector showed signs of weakness, it would be harder for the Fed to make such a move since it could have a negative impact on employment.
• Next week is shortened due to Monday’s Labor Day holiday that has the markets closed for the day.
• The number of economic reports and other scheduled events that may affect mortgage rates is few, but they include two highly important inflation indexes late in the week. There are also a couple of long-term Treasury auctions that have the potential to move rates during afternoon trading midweek.
• Look for details on all of next week’s activities in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.
• Visit our Daily Commentary page on our site for detailed explanations on current news that is relevant to mortgage rates.
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