• This week has six monthly and quarterly economic reports scheduled for the markets to digest. In addition to the data there are also two shorter-term Treasury auctions scheduled and an annual international central bank event that may yield some headlines.

 • There is nothing of importance scheduled for tomorrow, but this weekend’s news that trade negotiations between the U.S. and Canada broke down and new higher tariffs are in effect could pressure bonds tomorrow, leading to a small increase in rates.

 • The Conference Board will kick-off this week’s activities when they post their August Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) at 10:00 AM Tuesday. A noticeable decline in confidence would indicate that surveyed consumers probably will not make a large purchase in the immediate future, making broader economic growth more difficult. The index is expected to come in at 90.6, which would be a slight decline from July's 90.8. The lower the reading, the better the news for bonds and mortgage pricing.

 • Also set to be posted late Tuesday morning is July's New Home Sales report that will give us a small indication of housing sector strength and mortgage credit demand. It tracks only a small portion of all home sales with an overwhelming majority of U.S. sales covered in the Existing Home Sales report that was released earlier this month. Current forecasts show a decline in sales of newly constructed homes last month. A large decline in sales would make the data favorable for mortgage rates even though we should see only a minor reaction to the report at best.

 • Wednesday morning has three major economic reports scheduled for release at 8:30 AM ET. The most influential of the batch is July’s Personal Income and Outlays report. It helps us measure consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. Forecasts have it coming in with a 0.2% rise in income and a 0.1% increase in spending. Weaker than expected numbers would be considered good news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

 • What makes Wednesday’s first report so important to the markets though, are key inflation readings (PCE and Core PCE indexes) within the data that the Fed relies heavily on during their FOMC meetings. This will be the last release of the PCE readings before next month's FOMC meeting, meaning they may affect how the Fed votes what to do with short-term interest rates. Favorable news for rates would be a noticeably slower pace of inflation.

 • Next up the first revision to the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading. The GDP is the total of all goods and services produced in the U.S., making it the best benchmark of economic growth or contraction. Last month's preliminary reading revealed that the economy grew at an annual rate of 1.5%. Wednesday's release is expected to show the same rate. A minor upward or downward adjustment won't have much of an impact on the markets or rates since the data is a bit aged at this point.

 • July's Durable Goods Orders report is the final relevant report set for Wednesday morning. The data tracks orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket items, or products that are expected to last three or more years such as appliances, electronics and airplanes. Analysts are expecting to see an increase of 0.5% in new orders, pointing to slightly stronger manufacturing activity last month. This data is known to be quite volatile from month to month, so a minor variance from expectations doesn't necessarily raise too much concern about the economy.

 • The first of the week's two relevant Treasury auctions will be taking place Wednesday also. 5-year Treasury Notes are being sold that day, followed by 7-year Notes Thursday. Results will be announced at 1:00 PM ET each day. A strong demand from investors would be good news and may lead to a modest improvement to mortgage pricing Wednesday and/or Thursday afternoon.

 • The final economic release of the week will be the University of Michigan's revised Index of Consumer Sentiment for August at 10:00 AM ET Friday. This sentiment index helps us track consumer willingness to spend. It is expected to have held at August's preliminary reading of 51.0 from two weeks ago. Waning confidence usually means that consumers are less likely to make large purchases in the near future. The lower the reading we get, the better the news for mortgage shoppers.

 • Fed Chairman Warsh will speak at the Fed's annual Jackson Hole conference in Wyoming Friday morning at 10:00 AM ET. This event is often considered the Fed Chairman's annual outline for monetary policy and always draws the attention of the markets. Bond traders will be closely following his words for an indication of how the data that came after the FOMC meeting may have altered the Fed's thought process and game plan for short-term rates.

 • Overall, Wednesday is the most important day for rates with the release of three big economic reports. We may see a big move Friday also if Chairman Warsh’s speech reveals any big surprises.

 • Thursday is a good candidate for calmest day, assuming nothing unexpected happens.

 • It will likely be an active week for the financial and mortgage markets, albeit we will probably see the biggest move in rates midweek. Since there are so many potential influences in the financial and geopolitical arenas right now, it would be prudent to keep a close eye on them if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

 • Visit our Daily Commentary page on our site for detailed explanations on current news that is relevant to mortgage rates.

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If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.