• Wednesday’s mortgage rates should be lower by approximately .375 - .500 if compared to Tuesday’s early pricing. The bond market is currently up 9/32 (4.26%).

 • Stocks are reacting strongly to last night’s Iran news to push the Dow higher by 1,283 points and the Nasdaq up 625 points.

 • While there is no relevant economic data being released this morning, there are still some major headlines to drive trading. Last night’s announcement that the U.S. and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire and that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen for shipping traffic has oil prices down considerably, causing the bond and stocks markets to rally.

 • The ceasefire appears to be only a short-term peace deal but the expected surge of traffic through the Strait will allow gas prices to fall in the very near future. That should ease inflation concerns, at least temporarily, which is very good news for the bond market.

 • This afternoon’s scheduled events likely won’t have anywhere near the impact on the markets and mortgage rates as last night’s news is having this morning. Still, we could see further movement later today, especially if the results of these events are favorable for rates since there already is positive momentum this morning.

 • First up will be the results of today’s 10-year Treasury Note auction at 1:00 PM ET. These types of sales give us an indication of investor demand for long-term securities. That is relevant because mortgage rates are based on long-term debt. If the benchmarks point to a strong demand from investors, we could see bonds extend this morning’s gains shortly after the results announcement, possibly leading to a slight intraday improvement in rates.

 • The minutes from last month's FOMC meeting will be released at 2:00 PM ET to give us insight into the Fed's current thought process and individual Fed member opinions regarding future monetary policy actions, particularly how the Iran war and spike in oil prices will affect what they do with key short-term rates in the coming months.

 • The referenced FOMC meeting took place well before March’s strong Employment report last Friday, so any reference to that sector in the minutes may not be as meaningful any longer.

 • We have three economic releases set for tomorrow morning- a weekly, a monthly and a quarterly report, all coming at 8:30 AM ET.

 • The most important of the three will be February's Personal Income and Outlays report that helps us measure consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. If income is rising, consumers are more likely to make additional purchases in the near future. Therefore, weaker than expected readings would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates. Forecasts are currently calling for a 0.3% rise in February's income and a 0.5% increase in spending.

 • However, what makes the first report so influential are the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) indexes in it that are the Fed's preferred inflation gauges. Forecasts show both the overall and the more important core PCE readings rising 0.4% for the month. The weaker the readings, particularly year-over-year, the better the news for mortgage rates.

 • It is worth noting that the PCE readings cover the period before the Iran conflict began, meaning the spike in oil and gas costs won’t be reflected in the results.

 • Tomorrow’s second release will be last week’s unemployment update that is expected to show 210,000 new claims for jobless benefits were filed. This would be an increase from the previous week’s 202,000 to hint the employment sector weakened a bit last week. Good news for bonds and mortgage rates would be a larger than predicted number of initial claims.

 • The second revision to the 4th Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will close tomorrow’s batch of data. It is expected to show that the economy grew at an annual pace of 0.7% during the last three months of the year, unchanged from the previous estimate that was announced last month. Analysts are now more concerned with the upcoming preliminary reading of the current quarter than data from three to six months ago, so we likely won’t see rates react to this news.

 • Also tomorrow is the 30-year Treasury Bond auction. As with today’s sale, results will be made available at 1:00 PM ET. A strong demand from investors would be favorable for mortgage rates.

 • Visit our Daily Commentary page on our site for detailed explanations on current news that is relevant to mortgage rates.

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If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.