• Monday’s mortgage rates should be higher by approximately .125 of a discount point if compared to Friday’s early pricing. If you saw an intraday increase in pricing Friday afternoon, you may not see a change this morning. The bond market is currently down 3/32 (4.25%), erasing stronger overnight losses.

 • Stocks are on a similar path with the major indexes mixed this morning after being expected to open well in negative ground last night.

 • There is nothing of importance scheduled for release today. In fact, this week has little in terms of economic data that has the potential to affect rates. There are only two monthly reports coming in addition to a Treasury auction that may affect rates during afternoon trading one day.

 • News over the weekend that Iran had fired on two ships attempting to cross the Strait of Hormuz after they announced earlier that it was completely open for shipping traffic was expected to cause large stock losses and a weak open for bonds.

 • Iran also said that the U.S. and Iran are nowhere near a final agreement to end the conflict, contradicting what President Trump had said. 

 • Oil prices jumped higher yesterday after those headlines crossed the wires and news broke that the U.S. had disabled and took control of an Iranian ship trying to pass through the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports.

 • This morning’s lack of a strong reaction to the weekend news is a sign the markets are growing weary of the back and forth, not knowing who is a reliable source for the status of the ceasefire and progress updates on ending the conflict. There isn’t even an agreement that peace talks will begin again this week with the U.S. sending a delegation to Pakistan and Iran saying no plans are set yet.

 • The current ceasefire agreement is supposed to end this Wednesday, meaning who knows what will happen Thursday.

 • Starting this week's very light economic calendar will be the highly important March Retail Sales report at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow. It tracks consumer spending, which makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Forecasts have sales rising 1.4% from February with a 1.2% increase if more volatile and costly auto transactions are excluded. Good news for rates would be a much smaller increase in sales.

 • Overall, Tomorrow is the most important day of the week based on economic data. News from the Middle East could make any day become active without warning though. A good candidate for calmest day may be Thursday unless geopolitical news changes that.

 • Due to the Fed’s mandatory quiet period ahead of next week’s FOMC meeting, we won’t be hearing much from individual members this week.

 • Despite a small number of scheduled events, we still should see plenty of movement in rates this week. Accordingly, please keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

 • Visit our Daily Commentary page on our site for detailed explanations on current news that is relevant to mortgage rates.

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If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.