• This week will be very busy with seven monthly and quarterly economic reports scheduled, two potentially relevant Treasury auctions and another FOMC meeting for the markets to digest. There are also a large number of corporate earnings announcements scheduled.

 • Furthermore, headlines from the Middle East will also likely be a factor this week.

 • There is no relevant data set for release tomorrow, but we should see the markets react to what appears to be a breakdown in peace talks this weekend. The on again off again talks leave market participants wondering what it will take to end the conflict.

 • At this moment, stocks look to open lower tomorrow and oil prices are up. A lot can happen during overnight trading, but we could see bonds react negatively to the news also, causing rates to move slightly higher tomorrow morning.

 • Late bond gains Friday may offset tomorrow’s weaker opening, possibly keeping rates close to Friday’s early levels if you did not see an intraday improvement.

 • Tomorrow has an afternoon event that has the potential to have a modest impact on bond trading though. Results of the day’s 5-year Treasury Note auction will be announced at 1:00 PM ET. Good news would be the benchmarks showing a strong demand for the securities.

 • This week’s auctions are both for short-term debt and won’t have the same impact on rates that sales of long-term debt do because mortgage pricing is based on long-term securities. Any reaction to the results should come during early afternoon hours tomorrow and/or Tuesday (7-year Notes), but it should be minor.

 • Economic releases begin late Tuesday morning with the release of April's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI). The Conference Board surveys 5,000 consumers from across the country about their personal financial situations. If sentiment is strong or rising, it is believed that consumers are more apt to make large purchases in the near future, fueling economic growth. Forecasts show a decline in confidence from March's 91.8. The smaller the reading, the better it is for mortgage pricing.

 • There are two pieces of data set for release early Wednesday morning. First up is March's Durable Goods Orders that gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders for big-ticket items at U.S. factories for products such as appliances, electronics and airplanes. Current forecasts show a 0.5% increase in new orders, signaling a rebound in the manufacturing sector after February’s orders fell 1.4%. Weaker manufacturing activity is favorable news for mortgage rates.

 • Also early Wednesday will be the release of February and March Housing Starts reports. This shutdown-delayed data tracks groundbreakings of new home construction and gives us a hint of housing sector strength. The report is expected to show a decline in new starts, pointing to a bit of weakness in the new home portion of the housing sector. Good news for rates would be a sizable decline, but this data usually doesn’t have a heavy influence on rates.

 • This week's FOMC meeting will adjourn Wednesday afternoon at 2:00 PM ET. The overwhelming consensus is that Chairman Powell and friends will leave key short-term interest rates at their current levels to see how higher oil prices will affect inflation over the longer period.

 • Their post-meeting statement will be released the same time the meeting adjourns, which will be followed by what will likely be Chairman Powell’s final FOMC press conference. This meeting does not include revised economic projections.

 • Thursday has three economic reports scheduled for release, all at 8:30 AM ET. Two of those are considered to be major pieces of data that can heavily influence the financial markets and mortgage rates.

 • First up Thursday is the 1st Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI). This index tracks employer costs for wages and benefits. A large increase in costs means employers will need to pass those increases into the pricing of their products and services, contributing to rising inflation. A smaller increase than the 0.8% rise that market analysts are predicting would be good news.

 • One of the major releases will be the highly influential initial Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading for the 1st quarter. The GDP is considered to be the benchmark indicator of economic growth or contraction. Market participants are expecting it to reveal the economy grew at an annual rate of 2.1% during the first three months of this year, strengthening from the 0.5% rate at the end of last year. A smaller growth rate would make bonds more appealing to investors and be considered good news for mortgage rates.

 • The other key report is March's Personal Income and Outlays data. It helps us measure consumer ability to spend and current spending habits. This information is important to mortgage rates due to the influence that consumer spending-related data has on the financial markets. Thursday's release is expected to show a 0.3% rise in income and a 0.9% jump in spending. Favorable results for rates would be smaller increases.

 • More importantly are the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) indexes in Thursday’s third report. These are the Fed's preferred inflation readings, so they draw a lot of attention. The overall PCE reading is predicted to be up 0.7% from February due to Iran-related higher fuel and energy costs while the more watched core PCE that excludes those volatile costs is expected to rise 0.3% for the month. Good news for mortgage pricing would be weaker PCE readings.

 • The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will close out this week’s economic calendar when they post their manufacturing index for April at 10:00 AM ET Friday. This highly important report gives us insight into manufacturer sentiment on business conditions. Analysts are expecting to see a reading of 53.0, up from March's 52.7. Bond traders would prefer to see a larger decline from March's level, which would signal the manufacturing sector was weaker than thought during the month.

 • Also worth mentioning is that corporate earnings season picks up momentum this week, where publicly traded companies announce their earnings results and forward guidance. Generally speaking, bad news for stocks often leads to bond gains and lower mortgage rates. They are scheduled throughout the week, mostly before the markets open or after they close. This means we can see influence on bond trading multiple days.

 • Overall, Wednesday is in the conversation for most important day because of the FOMC meeting, but there is a real chance that we will see the biggest move in rates Thursday after the GDP and inflation reports are posted.

 • No day stands out as a good candidate for calmest since there is at least one item listed each day of the week and several days have multiple events.

 • If still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future, it would be prudent to keep a close eye on the markets because we are expecting to see plenty of movement in rates.

 • Visit our Daily Commentary page on our site for detailed explanations on current news that is relevant to mortgage rates.

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If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.