• This week is likely to be a volatile one for the markets and mortgage rates with several important pieces of economic data scheduled for release. The number of economic reports is not large, but the significance most of them carry is very high.

 • In addition to the data, there are also a couple of Treasury auctions that may affect rates midweek.

 • Tomorrow is the only day of the week without at least one economic release scheduled.

 • December's Retail Sales report will start this week’s economic data at 8:30 AM ET Tuesday. This government shutdown-delayed data is very important to the financial markets because it measures consumer spending and that category makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. Forecasts are calling for a 0.5% increase from November's sales. Favorable results for the bond market and mortgage rates would be a much smaller rise.

 • Also early Tuesday morning will be the release of the 4th Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) that measures employer costs for employee wages and benefits. If wages are rising, consumers have more money to spend and businesses usually need to charge more for their products and services. Current forecasts show an increase of 0.8%. A reading lower than expected would be favorable to bonds and Tuesday's mortgage rates, but the Retail Sales data carries much more importance in the markets than this report does.

 • Wednesday brings us the release of January’s Employment report that was pushed back from last Friday’s scheduled release because of the partial shutdown. This highly influential report gives us detailed insight into the labor market with readings such as the U.S. unemployment rate, number of new jobs added or lost during the month and the change in average hourly earnings.

 • The current consensus is for the unemployment rate to have held at December's 4.4% and approximately 65,000 new jobs added to the economy while monthly earnings rose 0.3%. Stronger than expected numbers will likely fuel bond selling and a sizable upward move in mortgage rates. Good news for rates would be an increase in unemployment, fewer jobs and a smaller increase in earnings.

 • The first of this week’s two long-term Treasury security auctions will be held Wednesday. 10-year Treasury Notes will be sold that day, followed by 30-year Bonds Thursday. These sales will give us an indication of demand for long-term debt, which is what mortgage rates are based on. If they are met with a strong demand from investors, we should see the bond market improve and mortgage rates revise lower after results are announced at 1:00 PM ET those days.

 • In addition to the weekly unemployment update, January's Existing Home Sales report will also be released Thursday morning.  The National Association of Realtors is expected to say home resales slipped last month, hinting at housing sector weakness. Since long-term securities, such as mortgage bonds, tend to thrive during weaker economic conditions, softer housing numbers would be good news for mortgage rates.

 • Another highly influential report will be posted early Friday morning. January's Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy and bonds are very sensitive to inflation news. They release is expected to show an increase of 0.3% for January in both the overall and core readings.

 • The year-over-year CPI readings are expected to decline slightly from December's rate. Good news for bonds and mortgage pricing would be smaller monthly increases that would likely lead to a larger than predicted decline in the annual readings. A slower rate of inflation makes long-term securities, such as mortgage bonds, more attractive to investors and should help contribute to lower rates.

 • Overall, Wednesday or Friday are likely to be the most active day for rates due to the importance of the Employment and CPI reports. The calmest day should be Thursday unless something unexpected happens.

 • We are expecting to see plenty of movement in the financial markets and mortgage rates this week. Therefore, it would be prudent to keep a close eye on them if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

 • Visit our Daily Commentary page on our site for detailed explanations on current news that is relevant to mortgage rates.

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If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.