Updated on January 16, 2026 10:11:38 AM EST

 

 

 

 • Friday’s mortgage rates should be higher by approximately .125 of a discount point. The bond market is currently down 3/32 (4.18%).

 • Stocks are showing minor losses of 56 points in the Dow and 4 points in the Nasdaq.

 • December’s Industrial Production report was released at 9:15 AM ET this morning. It revealed output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities rose 0.4% last month, exceeding forecasts of up 0.2%. While the larger than expected increase is a sign of manufacturing sector strength, this report doesn’t carry a high level of importance in the markets.

 • We also have two Fed-member speeches today that could draw a reaction in the markets. Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will be speaking at 11:00 AM ET at an economic conference in Massachusetts. That will be followed by a 3:30 PM speech by Vice Chair Philip Jefferson at a different conference in Florida. Both speeches have topics related to the outlook of the economy and monetary policy.

 • Next week begins with the markets closed on Monday for the Dr. Martin Luther King Jr holiday.

 • The rest of the week is light in the number of reports and other events scheduled that may influence mortgage rates, but one of those few releases includes the Fed’s preferred inflation readings. It is more important to the bond market and mortgage rates than any of the other economic reports and the sole Treasury auction that we will get next week.

 • Look for details on all of next week’s activities in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.

 • Visit our Daily Commentary page on our site for detailed explanations on current news that is relevant to mortgage rates.


CLICK HERE to view full detailed report and recommendations

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

 ©Mortgage Commentary 2026



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