• Wednesday’s mortgage rates should be approximately .375 of a discount point higher. This morning’s increase won’t be as strong if you saw an intraday increase before closing yesterday after bonds weakened. The bond market is currently down 7/32 (4.57%).

 • Stocks are following suit with losses of 488 points in the Dow and 86 points in the Nasdaq.

 • While there isn’t any relevant economic data coming today, Iran-related news is heavily influencing the markets this morning. Military action by the U.S., in response to attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz that was supposed to be open for travel, led Iran to attack other countries in the region in retaliation. This put into question whether the current peace deal could hold.

 • Those events were followed by President Trump making statements at the Turkey NATO summit that the ceasefire was over, causing oil prices to move noticeably higher. Accordingly, inflation fears as a result of the higher oil costs, especially if the conflict continues and they keep rising, are fueling bond and stock selling this morning.

 • This afternoon’s scheduled events could affect mortgage rates also. There is a 10-year Treasury Note auction happening today with results set to be announced at 1:00 PM ET. Good news for bonds and mortgage pricing will be the benchmarks indicating investor demand for the securities was strong because mortgage rates are based on long-term debt also. This sale should have much more of an impact on rates than the shorter-term auctions did two weeks ago.

 • We will also get the minutes from the June 16-17 FOMC meeting at 2:00 PM ET today. There is a possibility of the markets reacting to them, but I don't believe they will reveal a significant surprise. Bond traders are looking for feelings about the direction of inflation and individual member thoughts about the Fed's next monetary policy move. Any information that helps form a consensus whether the Fed’s next move is raising or cutting key rates will likely draw a reaction in the markets later today.

 • Tomorrow has two relatively minor economic releases scheduled. Last week’s unemployment figures will be posted at 8:30 AM ET. They are expected to show 218,000 new claims for jobless benefits were filed last week. This would be an increase from the previous week’s 215,000 new claims. Since rising claims are a sign of weakness in the employment sector, a much larger than predicted number would be favorable for rates.

 • Closing out this week’s economic calendar will be June’s Existing Home Sales report at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. The National Association of Realtors is expected to say home resales rose a little last month, hinting at modest strength in the housing sector. Housing weakness makes broader economic growth more difficult, meaning good news for rates would be a decline in sales rather than an increase.

 • Today’s auction scenario will be repeated tomorrow when 30-year Bonds are sold. Results of it will also be posted at 1:00 PM ET.

 • Visit our Daily Commentary page on our site for detailed explanations on current news that is relevant to mortgage rates.

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If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.