• This week brings us the release of seven monthly and quarterly economic reports for the markets to digest. More importantly, most of the data is current after we have been relying on old data over the past month or so because of the government shutdown.

 • Weekend news from Venezuela may have an impact on the markets tomorrow, but at the time of this posting it appears it will be inconsequential with no major impact on mortgage rates. We will be watching to see what happens going into tomorrow morning’s session.

 • Scheduled activities begin late tomorrow morning when the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) posts their manufacturing index for December that measures manufacturer sentiment of business conditions. Analysts are currently expecting to see a 48.3 reading tomorrow, up slightly from November's 48.2. A smaller reading will be good news for the bond market and mortgage shoppers since it would signal manufacturing activity was weaker than expected.

 • The second economic release of the week will be the ADP Employment report before the markets open Wednesday morning. It tracks changes in private-sector jobs, using the company's clients that use them for payroll processing as a base. Forecasts are calling for 46,000 new payrolls after shedding 32,000 jobs in November. A much smaller number would be considered favorable for bonds and mortgage rates.

 • Wednesday also has two late morning reports set for release. October's shutdown-delayed Factory Orders data will give us more insight into the manufacturing sector, albeit it is pretty aged now. Forecasts show a 1.1% decline in new orders for durable and non-durable goods, hinting at a slowing manufacturing sector back in October. A larger decline would be good news for rates even though we likely won't see a strong reaction to the report.

 • The Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) non-manufacturing index (aka service index) for December is Wednesday’s third release. This is the sister report of tomorrow’s ISM manufacturing index with this version tracking executive opinions on business conditions in the service sector rather than manufacturing. They are expected to announce a reading of 52.2, down from November's 52.6. A reading above 50.0 means more surveyed executives felt business improved during the month than those who said it worsened. Good news for mortgage rates would be a much weaker than predicted reading.

 • In addition to the weekly unemployment update, we will also get 3rd Quarter Productivity numbers at 8:30 AM ET Thursday. This is one of the few reports that a stronger than expected result is favorable for rates. High levels of productivity allow the economy to grow without inflation necessarily rising also. The second quarter update of this data showed a 3.3% pace of worker output. A noticeably larger increase could help lead to slightly lower rates Thursday, but any reaction should be fairly minimal.

 • Friday brings us the final two reports, one being the almighty monthly governmental Employment report at 8:30 AM ET. The Employment report is arguably the single most important monthly release we see. Rising unemployment, a decline in payrolls and flat earnings would be ideal news for the bond market. Analysts are expecting to see the unemployment rate slip 0.1% from November's four-year high of 4.6%, while 155,000 new jobs were added to the economy and an increase in earnings of 0.3%. If we see weaker than expected results, the bond market should rally, improving Friday's mortgage rates noticeably.

 • January's preliminary reading to the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment will finish this week's calendar at 10:00 AM Friday. It helps predict consumer willingness to spend. Stronger consumer spending numbers translate into economic growth that makes stocks more appealing and bonds less attractive to investors. Current predictions show a minor increase from December's 52.9. The lower the reading, the better the news for bonds and mortgage rates.

 • Overall, Friday is the most important day of the week for rates due to the importance the Employment report carries in the markets. Tomorrow could also be interesting with the ISM index coupled with a potential reaction to this weekend’s Venezuela news.

 • The calmest day should be Tuesday unless something unexpected happens.

 • There are a couple of highly influential reports coming this week and most of the data is current now that we have worked through the important reports that were delayed by the government shutdown. The less important data that is still delayed isn’t going to have a noticeable impact on rates at this point, meaning we can expect to see strong reactions if there are surprises in this week’s marquee reports.

 • Please be prudent and keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate since we should see some volatility in the markets this week.

 • Visit our Daily Commentary page on our site for detailed explanations on current news that is relevant to mortgage rates.

 

 

 

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If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.