• Thursday’s mortgage rates should be close to Wednesday’s early pricing. The bond market is currently down 3/32 (4.08%).

 • Stocks are showing early losses with the Dow down 206 points and the Nasdaq down 33 points.

 • Yesterday’s 20-year Treasury Bond auction did not go well. The benchmarks we used to gauge investor demand pointed to a weak interest in the securities. Even though we didn’t see much of a reaction in the bond market despite the lackluster interest, the sale still has to be labeled unfavorable for mortgage rates.

 • Also posted yesterday afternoon were the minutes from last month's FOMC meeting that gave us some interesting bits of relevant information. Under the good news column was discussion about how AI and other technological advances may improve worker productivity and contribute to lower inflation.

 • However, the minutes also showed there was discussion from several members about the possibility of needing to boost key short-term interest rates if inflation doesn’t head back down to the Fed’s goal of 2.0% annually. The fact that a rate hike may be coming before another cut surprised many analysts.

 • Fortunately, we likely saw little reaction to the minutes because economic data posted after the FOMC meeting did indeed signal inflation was easing. That lowers the chance of the Fed making the referenced rate hike, assuming incoming data continues to support the downward trend.

 • Today’s first piece of data were last week’s unemployment numbers at 8:30 AM ET. They revealed only 206,000 new claims for jobless benefits were made, down from the previous week’s upwardly revised 229,000. Forecasts had claims coming in at 225,000. The drop in initial filings is a sign of strength in the employment sector.

 • The Conference Board announced at 10:00 AM ET that their Leading Economic Indicators for December fell 0.2%. The decline for December means the index is predicting modestly slower growth in economic activity during the first part of the new year. Predictions had it slipping just 0.1%.

 • Tomorrow has four economic reports scheduled, two of which are considered to be major releases that can heavily influence the financial and mortgage markets.

 • We will get the initial Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading from the 4th Quarter at 8:30 AM ET. This reading is so important because, as the total sum of all goods and services produced in the US, it is considered to be the best measurement of economic activity. Analysts are expecting it to show the economy grew at an annual rate of 2.9% during the final three months of the year, a slower pace than the 3rd quarter's 4.4% rate. A noticeably weaker economy would be great news for the bond and mortgage markets.

 • The second highly important report also comes at 8:30 AM ET when December's Personal Income and Outlays data is posted.  Analysts are predicting an increase in income of 0.3%, signaling consumers had a little more money to spend in December than they did in November. The spending reading is expected to rise 0.4%. Stronger readings would be good news for the stock markets and could hurt bond prices, driving mortgage rates higher.

 • What makes the income and Outlays report so influential is the fact it includes the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) indexes that the Fed relies on as their primary inflation gauge. Forecasts vary between a 0.2% and 0.3% monthly rise in both the overall and core readings. Weaker than expected numbers would be considered favorable news for the bond market and mortgage rates, especially if the core PCE fails to reach monthly or annual projections.

 • The final two reports of the week will be released at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. A combination of November and December's New Home Sales report is one. This is the least important report of the week, covering the small portion of home sales that last week’s Existing Home Sales report did not include. This report will likely have little or no impact on mortgage rates.

 • February's revised reading to the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment will close out this week’s economic calendar. It is expected to show a small decline from the initial 57.3 reading two weeks ago. Good news for rates would be a large decline in this reading, meaning consumers are more concerned about their finances and are less likely to make a large purchase in the immediate future.

 • Visit our Daily Commentary page on our site for detailed explanations on current news that is relevant to mortgage rates.

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If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.