• This week has five monthly and quarterly economic reports that may influence mortgage rates, two of which are considered to be of upper importance to the markets and may have a stronger impact on rates than the others.

 • In addition to the data there are also a couple of Treasury auctions that may affect rates during afternoon trading midweek.

 • We will also be watching for headlines regarding the Middle East, especially regarding the Strait of Hormuz and if shipping is moving through it that will lower gas prices and ease inflation concerns.

 • The week starts light with nothing of importance scheduled for release tomorrow or Tuesday.

 • May's New Home Sales report will be the week’s first scheduled event, set for release at 10:00 AM ET Wednesday. This report helps us measure housing sector strength by tracking sales of newly constructed homes. However, it covers such a small portion of all home sales in the U.S. that the report doesn’t carry much influence in the markets. A decline in sales would allow the report to be labeled as good news for mortgage pricing.

 • Wednesday also has the first of this week's two Treasury auctions that we will be watching. The key is how strong investor interest is for the securities. 5-year Notes will be sold Wednesday while 7-year Notes will be auctioned Thursday. If they are met with a strong demand from investors, we could see bond prices rise and mortgage rates improve slightly during afternoon trading midweek.

 • Thursday is quite busy in terms of scheduled economic releases. In addition to the typical weekly unemployment update, it also has three other early morning reports that we will be watching.

 • The most important of Thursday’s data is May’s Personal Income and Outlays report at 8:30 AM ET. The theory is, if consumer income is rising, they have more money to spend each month. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.4% rise in income while spending rose 0.6% during the month.

 • The Personal Income and Outlays report also includes important inflation readings that the Fed heavily relies on during their FOMC meetings. Forecasts have the overall Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index up 0.4% for the month while the more important core data that excludes volatile food and energy costs is predicted to rise 0.3%. The year-over-year PCE readings are expected to rise from April’s pace.

 • Stronger inflation makes long-term securities, such as mortgage bonds, less attractive to investors and may cause the Fed to raise key rates. Therefore, good news for mortgage rates would be noticeable weaker readings.

 • May's Durable Goods Orders report is next in terms of importance level. It will give us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for products that are expected to last three or more years such as airplanes, appliances and electronics. Forecasts show a decline in orders in the neighborhood of 4.0%. A larger drop would be good news for mortgage pricing.

 • The second revision to the 1st Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading is also set for release at 8:30 AM ET Thursday. This data will likely have little impact on mortgage pricing unless it varies greatly from previous readings since market participants are looking more towards next month's release of the current quarter's initial reading. Thursday's update is expected to match the initial revision that the economy grew at a 1.6% annual rate. A large upward revision would be considered negative for rates as it means the economy was stronger than thought.

 • The University of Michigan will close out this week's data when they update their Index of Consumer Sentiment for June late Friday morning. Waning confidence in personal financial and employment situations usually translates into softer levels of consumer spending, restricting economic growth. A large downward revision would be considered good news for bonds and rates. Forecasts show the index coming in near the initial reading of 48.9 from earlier this month.  

 • We will also start seeing public speaking engagements from Fed members since the FOMC meeting is now behind us. Market participants are looking for individual member thoughts about inflation and the likelihood of the Fed making a rate hike before lowering them again. Generally speaking, the Fed raising key short-term rates is bad news for bonds and should cause an increase in mortgage rates.

 • Overall, Thursday appears to be the most important day for rates because of the batch of data that day, including the highly important inflation readings.

 • Tuesday could be the calmest day, assuming nothing unexpected happens.

 • With so much scheduled this week and the possible addition of Middle East headlines on top of it, it would be prudent to keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

 • Visit our Daily Commentary page on our site for detailed explanations on current news that is relevant to mortgage rates.

CLICK HERE to view full detailed report and recommendations

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.