• Tuesday’s mortgage rates should be approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point lower than Monday’s early pricing, due partly to bond gains late yesterday. The bond market is currently up 6/32 (4.19%).

 • Stocks are showing gains despite an overnight increase in oil prices. The Dow and Nasdaq are up 200 points and 137 points respectively.

 • Today’s only potentially mortgage rate-related event is the 20-year Treasury Bond auction. A strong demand for the securities may lead to bond gains after results are posted at 1:00 PM ET. This would indicate investors still have an appetite for long-term debt and would be considered favorable for mortgage rates. If there is a reaction to the auction, it will come during early afternoon trading.

 • Tomorrow is going to be a busy day with two morning economic releases, one being a closely watched inflation reading, and an afternoon of Fed events.

 • The day will begin with the release of February's Producer Price Index (PPI) at 8:30 AM ET. This data tracks inflation at the wholesale level of the economy. Both the overall and more important core reading are predicted to be up 0.3% for the month. Larger than expected monthly or annual increases would be bad news for mortgage rates.

 • It is worth mentioning that, as with last week’s consumer level data, inflation trends and predictions have been thrown out the window because of the Iran war and significantly higher oil prices this month.

 • January's Factory Orders report will be released at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow morning. It includes new orders for both durable and non-durable goods, giving us a sign of manufacturing sector strength. It is not one of the more important reports we get each month, however, it can influence mortgage pricing if it varies greatly from forecasts. Analysts are expecting a 0.1% rise in new orders. The bond market would like to see a large decline.

 • The Fed events begin at 2:00 PM ET when the two-day FOMC meeting adjourns. It is widely expected that Chairman Powell and friends will leave key short-term interest rates unchanged at this meeting.

 • What traders are most interested about is how the Iran war and the related jump in oil costs have affected their outlook for inflation and Fed rate cuts. There was some discussion before the war started that they may need to raise key rates before they lower them again. High oil prices certainly support that theory as they are expected to fuel inflation across the global economy.

 • Along with the adjournment and post-meeting announcement, we will also get the Fed's updated economic projections at 2:00 PM ET. These economic predictions include what is known as the dot plot that tells us each member's individual predictions for key rates. Analysts use them as the Fed's official projections for rates.

 • The press conference with Chairman Powell will start at 2:30 PM.

 • It is likely going to be an active afternoon in the financial and mortgage markets tomorrow. Any comments or other information that indicates the Fed’s plans for two rate cuts this year have changed would be bad news for bonds and mortgage rates.

 • Visit our Daily Commentary page on our site for detailed explanations on current news that is relevant to mortgage rates.

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If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.