• Thursday’s mortgage rates should be higher by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point due mostly to overnight weakness in the global bond markets. The bond market is currently down 6/32 (4.17%).

 • Stocks are mixed again with the Dow up 92 points and the Nasdaq down 219 points.

 • Last week’s unemployment figures that were posted at 8:30 AM ET this morning revealed 208,000 new claims for benefits were filed. This was an increase from the previous week’s revised 200,000 initial filings and slightly lower than the 210,000 that was expected.

 • Also released early this morning were 3rd Quarter Productivity numbers. They showed worker output rose at a 4.9% annual rate during the July through August months. This was a stronger pace than the 2nd quarter’s revised 4.1% and better than forecasts.

 • A secondary reading in the productivity data that is related to inflation via labor costs came in much softer than expected.

 • While both readings in the productivity report are considered favorable for bonds and mortgage rates, we haven’t seen a reaction to the news unfortunately. The overnight selling is stronger than the importance this aged data carries in the markets.

 • Tomorrow has a couple economic reports set for release, including the almighty monthly Employment report at 8:30 AM ET. This will be the first timely release of the report since the shutdown ended, covering December.

 • Rising unemployment, a decline in payrolls and flat earnings would be ideal news for the bond market. Analysts are expecting to see the unemployment rate slip 0.1% from November's four-year high of 4.6%, while 55,000 new jobs were added to the economy and an increase in earnings of 0.3%. If we see weaker than expected results, the bond market should rally, improving mortgage rates noticeably. However, stronger than expected readings may cause mortgage rates to spike higher tomorrow.

 • October and September’s combined Housing Starts report is tomorrow’s second release of the day. It will tell us how many new home groundbreakings took place during those months. While this data gives us a small indication of housing sector strength, it usually has a minor impact on mortgage rates and should be minimized even further due to the age of the data.

 • January's preliminary reading to the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment will finish this week's calendar at 10:00 AM tomorrow. It helps predict consumer willingness to spend. Stronger consumer spending numbers translate into economic growth that makes bonds less attractive to investors. Current predictions show a minor increase from December's 52.9. The lower the reading, the better the news for bonds and mortgage rates.

 • Visit our Daily Commentary page on our site for detailed explanations on current news that is relevant to mortgage rates.

 

 

 

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If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.