Updated on February 4, 2026 10:08:04 AM EST

 

 

 

 • Wednesday’s mortgage rates should be nearly unchanged from Tuesday’s early pricing. The bond market is currently down 1/32 (4.27%).

 • Stocks are mixed with the Dow up 99 points and the Nasdaq down 198 points.

 • January’s ADP Employment report was released at 8:15 AM ET this morning, revealing the private sector added fewer jobs than expected last month. The 22,000 new payrolls fell short of the 42,000 that were forecasted, hinting the employment sector may be a little softer than many had thought, especially considering December’s number was revised from the 41,000 that was previously announced to 37,000.

 • The Institute for Supply Management announced their January non-manufacturing index (aka service index) stood at 53.8 last month, matching December’s downwardly revised reading. The revision tells us that the service sector was weaker than expected in December and pretty much as predicted to start the new year. We are labeling the report neutral for mortgage rates since January’s reading came in as expected.

 • There is also a Fed-member speech taking place this evening that has a topic related to monetary policy and the outlook for the U.S. economy. Fed Governor Cook will be speaking at the Economic Club of Miami at 6:30 PM ET, meaning if there is a reaction to something she says, it won’t be until tomorrow morning’s mortgage rates.

 • Tonight’s speech is one of the two that we flagged as more likely to affect rates than most of this week’s other speaking events.

 • Tomorrow’s only relevant data is the weekly unemployment update at 8:30 AM ET. It is expected to show 212,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week after the previous week’s 209,000 initial filings. The higher the number, the better the news for rates because rising claims are a sign of weakness in the employment sector.

 • Congress has passed the legislation needed to end the partial government shutdown and President Trump has signed it to send all government workers back to work. A new release date for January’s Employment report has not been announced yet after Friday’s scheduled release was postponed, but we should see it in the near future.

 • Visit our Daily Commentary page on our site for detailed explanations on current news that is relevant to mortgage rates.


CLICK HERE to view full detailed report and recommendations

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

 ©Mortgage Commentary 2026



Get your Daily Commentary from LendingCorp.com everyday!


Would you like to receive the commentary
on a daily or weekly basis?
Daily will send a copy Monday - Sunday.
Weekly will send only Sunday's weekly overview/preview.

Please be assured that we will not
share your email address with ANYONE. Just fill out the form below!!

Your name:

Your Email Address: