
• Tuesday’s mortgage rates should be close to Monday’s early level, although some lenders may show a modest increase in this morning’s pricing. The bond market is currently down 2/32 (4.76%).
• Stocks are showing losses of 92 points in the Dow and 239 points in the Nasdaq.
• This morning’s economic release came from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), who announced their August manufacturing index stood at 54.6. This was a decline from July’s 55.6 and lower than expectations. The lower reading means fewer surveyed manufacturers felt business improved during the month than did in July.
• We saw bonds improve after the ISM report was posted, erasing most of the overnight bond losses that could have led to a more noticeable increase in this morning’s rates.
• Tomorrow brings us two morning economic reports and an afternoon Fed report. The day will start with the release of August's ADP Employment report before the markets open. Analysts are expecting to see 45,000 new private-sector jobs were added to the economy last month. A number that is higher than expected would be negative news for mortgage rates while a much smaller increase would be favorable.
• July's Factory Orders data will be posted at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow. This is another manufacturing sector report and is similar to last week's Durable Goods Orders report, but doesn’t carry nearly as much importance as some of this week’s other reports. Forecasts show a 0.5% rise in orders at U.S. factories for both durable and non-durable goods. A decline would be favorable for bonds. However, this data likely won't cause much movement in rates unless its results vary greatly from forecasts.
• The Federal Reserve will release their Beige Book report at 2:00 PM ET tomorrow, making this the afternoon event for rates. This report details current economic conditions in the U.S. by Federal Reserve region through the eyes of their business contacts. It is believed to be a key source of data when the Fed meets for their FOMC meetings and is usually released approximately two weeks prior to each meeting.
• If the Beige Book reveals any significant surprises or changes from the previous release, we may see movement in the markets and mortgage pricing as analysts adjust their theories about what the Fed will do regarding a potential rate hike at their September 15-16 FOMC meeting.
• Good news for mortgage rates would be weaker economic activity with signs of easing inflation that lowers the possibility of the Fed raising key short-term interest rates in the immediate future.
• Visit our Daily Commentary page on our site for detailed explanations on current news that is relevant to mortgage rates.
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