• This week brings us the release of only four monthly economic reports in addition to one Treasury auction. It also has an FOMC meeting that the Iran war has created a great deal of uncertainty about.

 • We should see plenty of movement in rates this week, particularly the middle days.

 • Weekend news that the Iran war will continue for at least a few more weeks, along with oil prices breaking above $100 a barrel again, means we should see the markets open tomorrow with volatility again to start the week with a move in mortgage pricing.

 • First up is February's Industrial Production report that is set for a 9:15 AM ET release tomorrow morning. This report is a measure of manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. It is predicted to show production rose 0.2% from January's level. A decline would be considered favorable news for bonds and mortgage rates.

 • There is no relevant economic data set for Tuesday, but it does have a 20-year Treasury Bond auction taking place. Results of the sale will be announced at 1:00 PM ET. If it draws a strong demand from investors, we could see bonds improve during early afternoon trading, possibly leading to a slight downward revision to mortgage pricing.

 • February's Producer Price Index is another important inflation reading, set for release at 8:30 AM ET Tuesday. This is the sister release to the Consumer Price Index except it measures inflationary pressures at the wholesale level of the economy. Both the overall and core readings are predicted to be up 0.3% for the month. Larger than expected monthly or annual increases would be bad news for mortgage rates. However, inflation trends and predictions have been thrown out the window because of the Iran war and significantly higher oil prices this month.

 • January's Factory Orders report will be posted late Wednesday morning. It is similar to last Friday's Durable Goods Orders data in giving us a measurement of manufacturing sector strength, but this version includes new orders for both durable and non-durable goods. Analysts are expecting a 0.4% rise in new orders, indicating minor strength in the manufacturing sector. The bond market would like to see a large decline.

 • The Fed events begin at 2:00 PM ET when the two-day FOMC meeting adjourns. It is widely expected that Chairman Powell and friends will leave key short-term interest rates unchanged at this meeting. What traders are most interested about is how the Iran war and related jump in oil costs has affected their outlook for Fed rate cuts.

 • There was some discussion before the war started that they may need to raise key rates before they lower them again. High oil prices certainly support that theory as they are expected to fuel inflation across the global economy.

 • Along with the adjournment and post-meeting announcement, we will also get the Fed's updated economic projections at 2:00 PM ET Wednesday. These economic predictions include what is known as the dot plot that tells us each member's individual predictions for key rates. Analysts use them as the Fed's official projections for rates.

 • The press conference with Chairman Powell will start at 2:30 PM.

 • It is likely going to be an active afternoon in the financial and mortgage markets Wednesday, especially if predictions alter the current plan of two rate cuts this year. Any comments or other information that indicates the Fed’s plans have changed would be bad news for bonds and mortgage rates.

 • January's New Home Sales report is Thursday’s only monthly release and the week’s final economic data. This is the least important release this week and is the sister report to last week's Existing Home Sales data. Thursday's report is expected to show a drop in sales of newly constructed homes, hinting at weakness in the new home portion of the housing sector. The smaller the number of sales, the better the news for bonds and mortgage rates.

 • Overall, the most important day for rates is clearly Wednesday due to the inflation data and FOMC events. The calmest day could be Friday unless some unexpected news hits the wires.

 • We are expecting to have another highly volatile week for the financial and mortgage markets. Therefore, please keep a close on them if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

 • Visit our Daily Commentary page on our site for detailed explanations on current news that is relevant to mortgage rates.

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If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.