•  Thursday’s mortgage rates should be lower by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point. The bond market is currently up 5/32 (4.44%).

 •  Stocks are showing early strength also with the Dow up 283 points and the Nasdaq up 74 points.

 •  April’s Retail Sales report was posted at 8:30 AM ET this morning. It revealed consumer spending rose 0.5% last month, matching forecasts. A secondary reading that excludes more costly and volatile auto transactions was a little stronger than expected at up 0.7%.

 •  The increase sales is being attributed to higher costs for fuel and other related purchases, meaning figures may have been noticeably lower if effects of the Iran war were removed.

 •  Last week’s unemployment figures were also released early this morning, showing 211,000 new claims for jobless benefits were made. This was an increase from the previous week’s revised 199,000 initial filings and higher than the 206,000 that was expected. Rising claims are a sign the employment sector is softening.

 •  We will also be watching for headlines from President Trump’s summit in China, but considering the difference in time zones, any news will likely come during late morning trading.

 •  Topics that are most relevant to bonds and mortgage rates are related to tariffs and geopolitical situations such as the Strait of Hormuz and energy costs that affect inflation. Lower tariffs on imported and exported goods would ease inflation fears a bit, especially after we got two concerned reports just this week that indicated some metrics were at multi-year highs, as will any agreement that will help shipping through the strait.

 •  This week’s economic activities will come to a close tomorrow with the release of April's Industrial Production report at 9:15 AM ET. It gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. Forecasts show a 0.2% increase in production, indicating that manufacturing activity strengthened slightly last month.

 •  Tomorrow’s report draws some attention but not nearly the same level as most of the other reports that were released this week. Accordingly, we shouldn’t see a strong reaction to the data regardless of what it shows.

 • Visit our Daily Commentary page on our site for detailed explanations on current news that is relevant to mortgage rates.

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If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.