•Tuesday’s mortgage rates should be approximately .250 - .375 of a discount point higher than Monday’s early pricing. If you saw an intraday revision yesterday afternoon, you likely will see a smaller rise this morning. The bond market is currently down 14/32 (3.73%).
•Stocks are flat with the Dow down 9 points and the Nasdaq up 7 points.
•The first event on this week’s busy calendar was November’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) at 10:00 AM ET. The Conference Board announced a reading of 100.2 that was a decline from October’s revised 102.2 but pretty much matched expectations. The lower reading means surveyed consumers were less confident about their own finances this month than they were last month.
•Tomorrow has four items that we will be watching, starting with the release of November's ADP Employment report at 8:15 AM ET. It is an employment-related report that tracks changes in private-sector jobs using the company's payroll processing clients as a base. The markets are expecting to see 200,000 new private-sector payrolls last month. A much smaller number would be considered good news for mortgage rates.
•Also early tomorrow morning will be the release of the first revision to the 3rd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Last month's preliminary estimate of a 2.6% annual rate of growth is expected to be revised slightly higher. Good news for rates would be a downward revision, meaning the economy was not as strong as previously thought. However, this data is somewhat aged at this point. That means it will take a noticeable revision to cause a move in rates.
•There are also two afternoon events that may influence rates. Fed Chairman Powell has a speaking engagement at 1:30 PM ET that will draw plenty of attention. The topic is titled Economic Outlook, Inflation and the Labor Market, all being highly relevant currently. At the very least we will see a minor move in bond prices during his speech. On the other hand, his words could be a significant market mover.
•The second afternoon event will be the Federal Reserve's Beige Book at 2:00 PM ET. This report is named simply after the color of its cover and details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by Fed region via business contacts. Of particular interest is information regarding inflation, employment or future activity. If there is a reaction to the report, it will come during mid-afternoon trading.
•Visit our Daily Commentary page on our site for detailed explanations on current news that is relevant to mortgage rates.
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