• This week has six relevant monthly and quarterly economic reports scheduled for release with two of them considered to be key data and are expected to cause a noticeable move in rates. There is at least one report scheduled for release four of the five days, starting and ending with highly important economic reports.

 • Also scheduled is a periodic Fed report and we will be looking for an update to the proposed peace deal with Iran that is waiting for President Trump’s decision. News of an accepted deal from both sides should fuel a bond rally and lower mortgage rates.

 • Scheduled activities start tomorrow with the 10:00 AM ET release of May's manufacturing index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). It is one of this week's two highly important reports that can heavily influence mortgage rates. Forecasts show a 53.2 reading in this month's release, up from April's 52.7 meaning that sentiment strengthened a little this month. A much lower reading will be good news for the bond market and mortgage shoppers.

 • May's ADP Employment report is the first of Wednesday morning's three economic reports that we will be watching. The 8:15 AM ET release tracks changes in private-sector jobs, using ADP's payroll processing clients as a base. Traders are expecting it to show that 114,000 private sector jobs were added to the economy during the month. The smaller the increase in jobs, the better the news it is for mortgage rates.

 • Wednesday’s second release will come from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), who will release their non-manufacturing index (aka service index) for May at 10:00 AM ET. This is the sister report of tomorrow's ISM manufacturing index with this version tracking business executive opinions on conditions in the service sector rather than manufacturing. It is expected to show a reading of 53.6 that would be unchanged from April.

 • April's Factory Orders data will be Wednesday morning’s final economic release, which is similar to last week's Durable Goods Orders report. The difference is this release also includes orders for non-durable goods such as food and clothing. Current forecasts are calling for a 4.3% jump in new orders. A decline would be considered favorable even though any impact on rates will likely be minimal.

 • There is also a Wednesday afternoon event that may influence rates. That is the 2:00 PM ET release of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book. This report, which is named simply after the color of its cover, details economic conditions throughout the U.S. via business contacts in each Federal Reserve region. If there is a reaction in the bond market or mortgage pricing, it will happen during mid-afternoon hours Wednesday.

 • In addition to the weekly unemployment update, Thursday also has revised 1st quarter Productivity and Costs data set for release at 8:30 AM ET. This data measures employee output and employer costs for wages and benefits. Thursday's update is predicted to show productivity stood at a 0.8% annual pace. This is one of the few reports where a higher reading is considered favorable for mortgage pricing.

 • The week's economic calendar will come to an end early Friday morning when May's governmental Employment report is posted at 8:30 AM ET. This extremely important data will give us key employment readings such as the U.S. unemployment rate, the number of jobs added or lost during the month and average earnings change. We can expect a strong reaction to any surprises in this data.

 • Analysts are expecting to see the unemployment rate hold at April's 4.3% for May with approximately 96,000 jobs added during the month and a 0.3% increase in earnings. A higher than expected unemployment rate and a much smaller increase in payrolls would be favorable news for mortgage rates. Bonds are particularly sensitive to the earnings increase also, meaning the smaller the rise in that number, the better the news for rates.

 • Overall, Friday is the most important day for rates by default since it has the almighty Employment report scheduled. Tomorrow may also be noticeably active with the ISM index being announced. Tuesday is a good candidate as calmest day unless there are new headlines regarding Iran.

 • With so much going on this week, it would be prudent to keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

 • Visit our Daily Commentary page on our site for detailed explanations on current news that is relevant to mortgage rates.

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If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.