• This week brings us the release of five pieces of monthly economic reports for the markets to digest, with three being considered highly influential and a couple of Treasury auctions. We will also be watching for new headlines from the Middle East, particularly regarding the status of the Strait of Hormuz and the reaction oil prices may have.

 • There is nothing of relevance to mortgage rates scheduled for release tomorrow, but news that Iran said the Strait of Hormuz won’t reopen yet could have a negative impact on mortgage rates as the new week begins.

 • July's Existing Home Sales report from the National Association of Realtors will start this week’s activities at 10:00 AM ET Tuesday. This report covers a high percentage of all home sales in the U.S., but usually does not have a major influence on bond trading and mortgage rates. It is expected to show a slight decline from June's sales, meaning the housing sector softened modestly last month. Good news for rates would be a noticeable decline in sales.

 • July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) early Wednesday morning is the first major piece of data that we need to be concerned about. Forecasts show a 0.1% rise in the overall reading and a 0.2% increase in the more important core data that excludes volatile food and energy prices. Annual readings are expected to decline from June's pace. Good news for mortgage rates would be weaker than predicted inflation readings.

 • Wednesday also has the first of the two long-term Treasury auctions that may affect mortgage rates during afternoon trading. 10-year Treasury Notes are being sold Wednesday, followed by 30-year Bonds Thursday with results being posted at 1:00 PM ET each day. If demand was strong, particularly from international investors, we should see mortgage rates improve during afternoon trading Wednesday and Thursday.

 • We get more highly important data Thursday morning when July's Producer Price Index (PPI) is posted at 8:30 AM ET. It will give us an important measure of inflationary pressures at the wholesale level of the economy. Analysts are predicting an increase of 0.1% in the overall index and a rise of 0.3% in the core data for July. Good news for rates should be softer readings both monthly and annually, partly because stronger wholesale inflation often carries into the consumer level of the economy eventually.

 • The week's calendar closes Friday with two more pieces of data, including another major economic release. The report drawing the most attention Friday will be July's Retail Sales at 8:30 AM ET that tracks consumer spending. Forecasts have sales rising 0.2%, indicating consumers spent more last month than they did in June. Because this category is a key part of the overall economy and bonds tend to thrive in softer economic conditions, weaker sales would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

 • The last release of the week will come from the University of Michigan late Friday morning. Their Index of Consumer Sentiment for August will give us an indication of consumer confidence in their own financial and employment situations. Rising confidence means consumers are more apt to make large purchases in the near future, fueling economic growth. It is expected to show a reading of 54.2 that would mean confidence is a little weaker this month than July's level of 55.2. Favorable news for mortgage rates would be a sizable decline.

 • Overall, Wednesday is likely to be the most active day for rates due to the importance the consumer inflation data carries and the afternoon Treasury auction, but Thursday and Friday’s data also has the potential to cause a noticeable revision in rates.

 • The calmest day could be Tuesday since this weekend’s Middle East headlines may move rates tomorrow.

 • We should see plenty of movement in rates this week, especially the middle and latter day. Accordingly, please proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

 • Visit our Daily Commentary page on our site for detailed explanations on current news that is relevant to mortgage rates.

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If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.