• Monday’s mortgage rates should be lower than Friday’s early pricing by approximately .500 of a discount point. The bond market is currently up 11/32 (4.43%).

 • Stocks are posting strong gains on the same news, pushing the Dow up 521 points and the Nasdaq up 617 points.

 • Yesterday’s announced agreement with Iran is the fuel of this morning’s market gains. It doesn’t resolve all of the issues each side wanted, but most importantly for the bond market, it opens the Strait of Hormuz. This will allow cargo and oil shipments to pass through the strait, eventually bringing energy and gas costs down for consumers.

 • Opening the strait directly relates to and eases inflation concerns that have caused bond yields and mortgage rates to move higher over the past few months and raised the possibility of a Fed rate hike coming before they lower key short-term rates again.

 • The signing of the agreement is expected to happen later this week, so there is still the chance something could change before then.

 • This week’s economic calendar kicked-off this morning with the release of May's Industrial Production data at 9:15 AM ET. It revealed a 0.1% increase in output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities, falling a bit short of the 0.3% that was expected. While this is technically good news for bonds and mortgage rates, it has had no influence on this morning’s pricing.

 • The remainder of this holiday-shortened week has three more monthly economic reports for the markets to digest, with one being labeled highly important. There are also a few non-data items on the calendar that have the potential to influence mortgage rates, including a Treasury auction and an afternoon of FOMC events.

 • In addition to the scheduled events, we will also be watching for surprise headlines from the Middle East to affect bond trading and mortgage rates.

 • Tomorrow has another economic release that is likely to have little impact on mortgage rates. May's Housing Starts report will be released at 8:30 AM ET, telling us the number of new home groundbreakings. Market analysts are expecting to see a minor decline in new home construction starts last month. Good news for the bond market and mortgage rates would be a noticeable decline in groundbreakings.

 • Also tomorrow will be the 20-year Treasury Bond auction. Results of the sale will be posted at 1:00 PM ET, making this an afternoon event for rates. A strong demand for the securities could help improve bonds and lead to slightly lower mortgage rates.

 • Overall, Wednesday is the most important day for rates by default due to FOMC meeting and related events. The fact the Retail Sales report comes that morning also only solidifies the day as the one most likely to have the biggest move in rates.

 • The calmest day could be Thursday, unless something unexpected happens.

 • It would be prudent to keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest and closing in the near future, especially the middle days of the week.

 • Visit our Daily Commentary page on our site for detailed explanations on current news that is relevant to mortgage rates.

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If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.