


• Friday’s mortgage rates should be approximately .125 of a discount point higher than Thursday’s early pricing. If you saw a rate increase yesterday afternoon, you may see a small improvement this morning, depending on the size of Thursday’s intraday increase. The bond market is currently up 11/32 (4.35%).
• Stocks are showing early gains, pushing the Dow up 54 points and the Nasdaq up 312 points.
• This morning’s major economic news came from April’s Employment report that was posted at 8:30 AM ET. It revealed 115,000 new jobs were added to the economy last month, greatly exceeding forecasts for a second straight month. April’s payroll number was more than twice the 62,000 that was expected, indicating strength in the employment sector.
• April’s unemployment rate held March’s 4.3% to match expectations.
• The average hourly earnings reading of up 0.2% fell short of the 0.3% that was predicted. It is worth noting that the 0.2% increase is a round up and that it was actually just above 0.15%. This eases wage inflation concerns that can spread to other parts of the economy.
• The payroll number is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates because it signals employment strength that makes it harder for the Fed to justify a cut to key short-term interest rates in the near future. The Fed’s two objectives are to keep inflation down and employment up. With the sector showing solid growth the past two months, the Fed may need to turn their attention just to inflation, which would require a rate hike rather than a cut.
• Today’s second release was more clearly favorable news. The University of Michigan announced late this morning that the preliminary reading to their May Index of Consumer Sentiment stood at 48.2. This was a decline from April’s 49.8 and lower than forecasts. The lower reading means more surveyed consumers felt better about their finances last month than they do this month and are less likely to spend this month.
• Next week is another busy one with economic data scheduled to be released each day. April’s Existing Home Sales report will start the week’s activities late Monday morning. Of particular interest will be two key inflation readings and a highly influential report on consumer spending.
• In addition to the data, there are also two long-term Treasury auctions taking place that may affect rates during afternoon trading midweek. And of course, Iran-related headlines will likely have an impact on the markets multiple days.
• Look for details on all of next week’s scheduled events in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.
• Visit our Daily Commentary page on our site for detailed explanations on current news that is relevant to mortgage rates.
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