• Thursday’s mortgage rates should be approximately .125 of a discount point lower than Wednesday’s early rates despite weakness in bonds late yesterday. The bond market is currently up 5/32 (4.66%).

 • Stocks are rebounding from yesterday’s post-FOMC sell-off to push the Dow up 311 points and the Nasdaq up 554 points.

 • This morning’s batch of economic news started with the release of June’s Personal Income and Outlays report at 8:30 AM ET. Drawing the most attention were the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) indexes that showed inflation was modestly softer than expected last month. The overall PCE slipped 0.1% for June while the more closely watched core reading rose just 0.1%. Forecasts had them down 0.1% and up 0.2% respectively.

 • On an annual basis, both readings pegged forecasts of a 3.7% pace on the overall and 3.3% for the core data. The year-over-year readings were at a slower rate than May’s number to signal inflation eased slightly over the past 12 months.

 • The other headline numbers in this morning’s first release were also favorable for rates. They showed personal income rose 0.2% when it was expected to be up 0.3%. Furthermore, spending was up only 0.3%, falling short of the 0.4% that was predicted. These numbers mean consumers had less income to spend and spent less than many had thought.

 • The other major release this morning was the preliminary 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading. The headline number showed the economy grew at just a 1.5% annual pace during the April through June months, falling well short of the 2.3% that was predicted. It was also a slower pace than the 2.1% pace of the first quarter of the year and the softest reading since the final three months of 2025.

 • Secondary readings in the GDP release that are related to consumption and inflation offset the lower GDP reading by showing much stronger than expected increases. In other words, the overall GDP reading is favorable for rates, but some of the other data in the report is bad news.

 • Last week’s unemployment update was also released early this morning. It revealed 197,000 new claims for jobless benefits were filed last week. This was an increase from the previous week’s revised 188,000, but still lower than the 204,000 that analysts were expecting to see.

 • Tomorrow has two more pieces of economic data set for release, albeit neither are as important as the majority of this morning’s reports. Still, they carry enough influence to affect mortgage rates slightly.

 • First will be the release of the 2nd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) at 8:30 AM ET.  This report tracks employer costs for wages and benefits, giving us a measurement of wage-inflation. A large increase in labor costs raises concerns that employers will need to pass them onto consumers in the pricing of their products and services. A smaller increase than the expected 0.8% would be good news for the bond market and mortgage pricing.

 • July's revised University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 AM ET is the final report of the week. It is considered relevant because rising consumer confidence usually translates into higher levels of spending, adding fuel to economic growth that makes bonds less appealing to investors. Unless we see a noticeable revision to the preliminary estimate of 54.4, the markets will probably have little reaction to this data.

 • Visit our Daily Commentary page on our site for detailed explanations on current news that is relevant to mortgage rates.

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If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.