• Monday’s mortgage rates should be approximately .250 of a discount point higher than Friday’s early pricing. The bond market is currently down 10/32 (4.27%).

 • Stocks are rallying on the same economic news that is hurting bonds, pushing the Dow higher by 323 points and the Nasdaq up 138 points.

 • This week’s calendar started with the release of January’s manufacturing index from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) at 10:00 AM ET. They announced a reading of 52.6 that was well above expectations and more importantly, broke the 50.0 threshold for the first time in a year. January’s reading was the highest since August of 2022 and signals strength in the manufacturing sector. This report appears to be the sole catalyst for this morning’s bond losses and increase in rates.

 • There is no relevant data set for release tomorrow.

 • The rest of the week has four more monthly and quarterly economic reports that we will be watching, along with a good number of Fed speeches that have the potential to affect mortgage pricing. Wednesday has a couple of those reports scheduled.

 • The partial government shutdown shouldn’t be an issue for mortgage rates unless it carries on longer than it should. It is expected to come to an end tomorrow. In the meantime, the biggest issue with the shutdown and the mortgage industry is a possible delay in closings that require flood insurance because FEMA is affected by partial shutdown. If it extends past tomorrow, then Friday’s release of January’s Employment report may come into question.

 • Last week's FOMC meeting ended the Fed's mandatory quiet period. There are many Fed-member speeches scheduled this week, but not all of them are expected to draw much attention. Speeches set for Wednesday evening and Friday morning have topics related to the outlook for the economy and/or monetary policy. Bond traders will be watching them closely for any surprises.

 • Overall, Friday is the most important day of the week with the Employment report being released, assuming the shutdown doesn’t carry longer than expected. Tomorrow may be the calmest day for rates unless something unexpected happens.

 • There is a strong possibility that we will see multiple days this week with a sizable change in rates. Therefore, please proceed cautiously if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

 • Visit our Daily Commentary page on our site for detailed explanations on current news that is relevant to mortgage rates.

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If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.