•  Wednesday’s mortgage rates should be lower by approximately .250 - .375 of a discount point. The bond market is currently up 16/32 (4.36%).

 •  Stocks are rallying on the same headlines as bonds, pushing the Dow higher by 574 points and the Nasdaq up 247 points.

 •  This morning’s sole relevant economic data was April’s ADP private-sector Employment report at 8:15 AM ET. The payroll processor announced 109,000 new private-sector jobs were added to the economy last month. This was higher than forecasts and hints that the employment sector may be stronger than thought.

 •  Today’s early bond strength does not come as a result of the ADP report. Bonds were rallying well before the data was released and the report gave us unfavorable news.

 •  What seems to be driving trading this morning are rumors that Iran and the U.S. are getting close to a peace plan. Whether or not that turns out to be accurate is another thing. We have seen many times over the past two plus months that what one side says publicly isn’t what the other side thinks.

 •  Let’s enjoy this morning’s rally, but don’t be surprised to see an about-face later today if something happens or is said that contradicts the peace rumor fueling this morning’s gains.

 •  Tomorrow brings us the release of two moderately important economic reports, both at 8:30 AM ET. One will be 1st Quarter Productivity and Costs data that helps us measure employee productivity in the workplace. High levels of productivity allow for low-inflationary economic growth. Productivity is expected to have improved 1.7% while labor costs reading rose 2.6%. Good news for mortgage pricing would be a stronger rate of productivity and a smaller increase in labor costs.

 •  We will also get last week’s unemployment figures tomorrow morning. They are expected to show new claims for jobless benefits rose after the previous week’s surprise of 189,000 initial filings were the lowest since September 1969. If tomorrow’s release shows another decline instead of an increase, we could see a stronger than usual reaction in the bond market. Good news for mortgage rates would be higher number than the 205,000 that is expected.

 • Visit our Daily Commentary page on our site for detailed explanations on current news that is relevant to mortgage rates.

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If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.