• This week has plenty scheduled that is likely to affect mortgage rates with relevant events scheduled every day. Several days have multiple events scheduled with the most important economic data reserved late in the week.

 • We have six monthly and quarterly economic releases to be concerned with, in addition to the highly anticipated FOMC meeting, more corporate earnings announcements and two Treasury auctions.

 • Analysts are expecting to see an increase of 1.6% from May's orders. This data gives us an indication of manufacturing sector strength by tracking orders at U.S. factories for big-ticket items. Much stronger than expected orders would be bad news for mortgage rates.

 • The first of this week's two Treasury auctions that we will be watching is also happening tomorrow. 5-year Notes will be sold tomorrow, followed by 7-year Notes Tuesday. Results of each day's sale will be announced at 1:00 PM ET. Strong demand for the securities could help boost the broader bond market after the results are posted, possibly leading to a minor improvement to mortgage pricing.

 • Headlines this weekend said military action between Iran and the U.S. appear to have paused since talks between them reportedly are moving in the right direction. This is allowing for oil prices to drop in trading. This could allow for an improvement in mortgage rates tomorrow morning if bond gains hold through overnight trading.  

 • If consumers are more confident in their own financial and employment situations, they are more apt to make large purchases in the near future. This is important because consumer spending makes up such a big portion of our economy. Current forecasts show 92.1, which would be an increase from June's 91.2. The lower the reading, the better the news for mortgage rates.

 • Wednesday doesn’t have any economic data that we will need to be concerned with, although it does bring us the FOMC meeting adjournment during afternoon trading.

 • However, there is more of a chance of a rate hike at this meeting, or at least a signal from them that one is coming soon, than there has been in quite time. Recent inflation data has been cooperative in terms of the direction it moved, but still remains well above the Fed’s preferred annual pace of 2.0%.

 • This month’s flare up of the war with Iran has pushed oil prices higher, leading to an increase in costs at the gas pump that has reignited inflation concerns going forward. These factors could be used as justification for the Fed to bump key rates higher to help bring inflation down faster.

 • We always have to assume there will be afternoon volatility in the financial and mortgage markets on days such as Wednesday. This meeting does not offer us revised economic projections or the so-called dot plot.

 • Thursday has three economic reports set for release, all at 8:30 AM. In addition to the weekly unemployment update, we will get June's Personal Income and Outlays report and the initial 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reading.

 • The Income and Outlays report is predicted to show a 0.3% rise in income and an increase of 0.4% in spending. Rising income means consumers have more money to spend, fueling economic growth. However, what makes this release so important to the markets are the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) indexes in it. These are the Fed's preferred inflation readings and draw plenty of attention.

 • The overall PCE is expected to rise for the month as is the more closely watched core PCE. Good news for bonds and mortgage rates will be smaller than expected increases, particularly in the annual PCE readings. Stronger inflation figures will likely lead to bond selling and higher mortgage rates Thursday.

 • Thursday’s second highly important release is the preliminary reading of the 2nd GDP reading. This index is considered to be the benchmark indicator of economic growth or contraction since it is the total of all goods and services that are produced in the U.S. Current forecasts estimate the economy grew at an annual rate of 2.3% during the April through June months after a 2.1% pace over the first three months. A stronger GDP number would be bad news for rates.

 • Friday will close this week’s calendar with two moderately important economic reports. First will be the release of the 2nd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) at 8:30 AM ET that tracks employer costs for wages and benefits. A large increase in labor costs raises concerns that employers will need to pass them onto consumers in the pricing of their products and services. A smaller increase than the expected 0.8% would be good news for the bond market and mortgage pricing.

 • July's revised University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is set to be posted late Friday morning. This is another consumer optimism reading about their own personal financial situations. Friday's release is an update to the preliminary reading we saw two weeks ago, so unless we see a drastic revision to the preliminary estimate of 54.4, the markets will probably have little reaction to this data.

 • Overall, Wednesday is the most important day for rates due to the FOMC meeting, but Thursday's two major reports could bring a big move in rates that day also.

 • Friday is the best candidate for calmest day.

 • There is no doubt that we will see plenty of movement in the financial markets and mortgage rates this week. Therefore, please keep an eye on them if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.

 • Visit our Daily Commentary page on our site for detailed explanations on current news that is relevant to mortgage rates.

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If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.