• Tuesday’s mortgage rates should be lower than Friday’s early pricing by approximately .250 - .375 of a discount point. The bond market is currently up 17/32 (4.47%).

 • Stocks are reacting to the same headlines as bonds, pushing the Dow higher by 97 points and the Nasdaq up 317 points.

 • The bond and stock markets were closed yesterday for the Memorial Day holiday.

 • The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for May was this morning’s only relevant economic report. They announced a reading of 93.1 that was higher than expected, but an upward revision to April’s reading kept the month-over-month decline in line with forecasts. Waning confidence usually translates into softer consumer spending levels.

 • Even though this morning’s sole report gave us somewhat good news, it is weekend headlines about progress towards a peace deal with Iran that is fueling today’s bond rally. News broke that the U.S. and Iran had made significant progress in peace talks over the weekend that included opening the Strait of Hormuz.

 • Oil prices immediately dropped, easing inflation concerns, but due to the weekend and yesterday’s holiday, this is the first opportunity for the bond market to react to the news.

 • Of course, it should come as of no surprise by now that there are already headlines this morning about military action resuming near the strait that puts any potential peace deal into question.

 • The rest of the week four more monthly or quarterly economic reports that we will be watching in addition to a couple of Treasury auctions and some Fed speeches.

 • There is also the potential for more headlines from the Middle East that will affect the markets, possibly as soon as this afternoon if it appears the ceasefire will not hold.

 • Tomorrow doesn’t have any relevant economic data that we need to be concerned about, but does have a few other events that may have an impact on the markets and mortgage rates late in the day. They begin with the 1:00 PM ET results announcement of this week’s 5-year Treasury Note auction. Favorable news for rates would be a strong demand for the securities even though any reaction is likely to be minimal because rates are based on long-term securities.

 • The other events set for tomorrow are Fed speakers that are talking about topics related to the economy and/or monetary policy. There is one set for 3:55 PM ET tomorrow afternoon with Fed Governor Lisa Cook and another at 8:00 PM ET by Vice Chair Philip Jefferson. This means if the bond and mortgage markets have a reaction to what is said, it will be reflected in Thursday morning’s pricing.

 • Overall, Thursday is the most important day of the week for rates due to the five reports being released that day and the significance of them, one including the Fed’s preferred inflation readings. Friday is the best candidate for calmest day of the week.

 • There is little doubt that we will see plenty of movement in the markets and mortgage pricing again this week. Therefore, it would be prudent to keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate.

 • Visit our Daily Commentary page on our site for detailed explanations on current news that is relevant to mortgage rates.

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If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.