


• Friday’s mortgage rates should be somewhere between .375 and .625 of a discount point higher than Thursday’s early pricing. The bond market is currently down 15/32 (4.53%).
• Stocks are in selling mode also despite economic data that was bad news for bonds, pushing the Dow lower by 123 points and the Nasdaq down 465 points.
• Today’s big economic news was the release of May’s governmental Employment report at 8:30 AM ET. It revealed the employment sector was stronger than thought with a surprisingly high 172,000 new job number, greatly exceeding the 85,000 or so that was expected.
• Furthermore, upward revisions to April and March of 64,000 and 29,000 respectively adds 93,000 more jobs year to date than previously thought. It is worth noting that this was the fourth month of over 100,000 jobs added during the past five months.
• The job numbers make it hard to say the employment sector is stumbling, which in itself is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates. However, they also undermine the theory that the Fed needs to lower key short-term interest rates to support employment. In other words, the Fed may make a rate increase to help bring inflation down before lowering them.
• The other headline numbers in this morning’s report showed no surprises. The unemployment rate held at April’s 4.3% as expected and average hourly earnings pegged forecasts of a 0.3% monthly increase.
• Next week brings us more highly important economic data with the release of two key inflation readings midweek. There are also a couple of long-term Treasury auctions that may affect rates during afternoon trading those same days.
• The other remaining scheduled reports are considered to only be moderately important and aren’t likely to cause a noticeable move in rates.
• The week starts light with nothing of importance set for Monday, leaving weekend headlines to drive trading the early days.
• Look for details on all of next week’s activities in Sunday evening’s weekly preview.
• Visit our Daily Commentary page on our site for detailed explanations on current news that is relevant to mortgage rates.
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