Sample Commentary Report
TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 13th, 2018
Tuesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following the long weekend for bonds. The stock markets are mixed after yesterday’s sell-off that pushed the Dow lower by over 600 points. During early trading, the Dow is down 4 points while the Nasdaq is up 44 points. The bond market is currently up 6/32 (3.16%), which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point if comparing to Friday’s morning pricing.
There is nothing of importance set for release today. We are seeing bonds react to yesterday’s stock selling. The rest of the week brings us only three pieces of economic data that likely will affect mortgage rates, but two of them are considered to be highly important. There also is a batch of Fed member speaking engagements, including one by Chairman Powell after hours Wednesday. These always have the potential to cause movement in the markets, particularly when there are few economic reports or other events to drive trading.
October’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) will start this week’s activities at 8:30 AM ET tomorrow morning. This index measures inflationary pressures at the consumer level of the economy and is one of the most important reports the bond market sees each month. If it reveals stronger than expected readings, indicating that inflationary pressures are rising at the consumer level, the bond market will probably react negatively and cause mortgage rates to move higher. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.3% increase in the overall reading and a 0.2% increase in the core data. The core reading is the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices.
Overall, the most important day of the week is either tomorrow or Thursday as they have equally important economic releases (CPI and Retail Sales respectively. While this week likely will not be as active for mortgage rates as the past couple
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