Sample Commentary Report
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 26th, 2018
Monday’s bond market has opened in negative territory with stocks in rally mode this morning. Stocks are showing significant gains during early trading, reacting to weekend news from overseas. The Dow is currently up 343 points while the Nasdaq has gained 115 points. The bond market is currently down 8/32 (3.07%), which should push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point over Friday’s early pricing.
There is nothing of importance taking place today. We are seeing bonds react to the stock rally that is being fueled by Brexit-related news that indicates progression is being made in Britain’s break away from the Eurozone. The rest of the week is actually quite busy with four relevant monthly or quarterly economic reports in addition to a bunch of other events that have a decent chance of influencing mortgage rates.
November’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) will start this week’s activities at 10:00 AM ET tomorrow morning. This Conference Board index helps us track consumer willingness to spend. If a consumer’s confidence in their own financial and employment situation is strong, analysts believe that they are more apt to make larger purchases in the near future, fueling economic growth. This is important because consumer spending makes up over two-thirds of the U.S. economy and strength in it makes long-term securities such as mortgage-related bonds less attractive to investors. Analysts are expecting to see a decline in confidence from last month’s level, meaning surveyed consumers were less optimistic about their own financial situations this month than they were last month. A weaker reading than the 135.5 that is expected would be good news for mortgage rates, while a stronger reading could push mortgage rates higher.
In addition to this week’s economic reports, there are two relatively important Treasury auctions that may also influence bond trading enough to affect mortgage rates. There will be an auction of 5-year Treasury Notes tomorrow and 7-year Notes on Wednesday. Neither of these sales will directly impact mortgage pricing, but they can influence general bond market sentiment. If the sales go poorly, we could see broader selling in the bond market that leads to upward revisions in mortgage rates. However, strong investor demand usually makes bonds more attractive to investors and brings funds into the bond market. The buying of bonds that follows often translates into lower mortgage rates. Results of the sales will be posted at 1:00 PM ET both days. Any reaction to the sales will come shortly after results are posted.
Overall, the most active day for mortgage rates will likely be Wednesday or Thursday. There is not a single event that makes them the best candidate. It’s the fact there are multiple events scheduled throughout the day that make them a higher priority than other days. The G20 Summit starts Thursday in Argentina and we could see some reaction to events there late this week, but it is difficult to predict what or when. Lastly, stocks are still likely to be a heavy contributor to bond movement any day this week, as we are seeing this morning. Therefore, it would be prudent to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future.
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