THURSDAY,  AUG 8th, 2024

Thursday’s bond market has opened in negative territory again after this morning’s sole economic report caused a reversal of overnight gains. Stocks are in rally mode again, partly due to the same data. The Dow is up 523 points and the Nasdaq is up 248 points. The bond market is currently down 12/32 (3.99%), which should push this morning’s mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.

Yesterday’s 10-year Treasury Note auction did not go well. The benchmarks indicated a fairly weak demand for the notes, pointing to a waning appetite for long-term securities. As expected, bonds reacted negatively to the news by extending their earlier losses. This was enough of a move for some lenders to revise mortgage pricing slightly higher before the end of the day.

Last week’s unemployment update was posted at 8:30 AM ET this morning, revealing a big drop in new claims for benefits. The report showed 233,000 initial filings, down from the previous week’s revised 250,000 and lower than forecasts of 241,000. A drop in new claims is a sign of strength in the labor market and gave a sigh of relief to stock traders after last week’s spike in claims and last Friday’s monthly Employment report raised concerns of a possible slowdown in the economy. Since this is good news for the economy, it is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates.

We also have today’s 30-year Treasury Bond auction to watch. Yesterday’s sale prevents us from being optimistic about today’s auction. Results will be announced at 1:00 PM ET. If there was a much stronger demand for these securities than yesterday’s notes, we could see afternoon gains in bonds and a possible small downward revision to mortgage rates this afternoon. However, another lackluster sale may lead to an upward move in rates either later today or possibly tomorrow morning.

Tomorrow lacks any relevant economic data or other scheduled events that are expected to influence rates. This will leave stock swings and outside factors to drive bond trading and mortgage pricing tomorrow. Normally, a light calendar day such as tomorrow would likely translate into a calm day for rates. We cannot rely on that this week because of the extreme volatility in the markets. If the major stock indexes remain relatively flat, tomorrow’s rates may follow suit. On the other hand, another round of big gains or a sell-off in stocks raises the chance of bonds reacting and mortgage rates changing noticeably. Generally speaking, rising stock prices make bonds less appealing and pushes mortgage rates higher, while stock losses tend to drive funds into bonds that lowers yields and rates for mortgage shoppers.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would…. Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days… Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days… Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days… Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now…

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